Stock markets will be driven by domestic inflation data, ongoing quarterly earnings from corporates and global trends this week, analysts said. News flows around the general election would also be tracked by investors, market experts said.
The RBI's rate-setting panel MPC on Monday began its three-day deliberation amid expectations of another round of hike in benchmark interest rates to contain inflation that continues to remain above the central bank's upper tolerance level. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the decision of the Monetary Policy Committee after deliberations on Wednesday. Das has already indicated that there may another hike in the repo rate, though he refrained from quantifying it.
'A 10 to 15 per cent allocation to gold in portfolios reduces risk without compromising on potential returns.'
The government expects onion prices to fall below Rs 40 per kilogram by January from the current average price of Rs 57.02 per kilogram, Consumer Affairs secretary Rohit Kumar Singh said on Monday. Last week, the government banned onion exports till March next year after the retail sales price of the kitchen staple crossed Rs 80 per kg in the national capital and the prices in mandis remained around Rs 60 per kg. To a query on when the onion prices are expected to fall below Rs 40 per kg, Singh said, "very soon... January"
Dismissing the contention that the decline in inflation was on account of the steps taken by the NDA government, Chidambaram said he wanted to know, 'what measures were taken by the government that contributed to decline in inflation rates.'
With retail inflation surprising on the upside, the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to increase the repo rate by 35-50 basis points (bps) in the review scheduled for September 28-30. According to economists, the central bank will continue to focus on bringing inflation down even though economic growth has remained sluggish. Data released by the government on Monday showed that the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased by 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in August, thus, staying above the upper tolerance limit of the central bank for all the eight months of 2022.
When evaluating bonds, returns shouldn't be the sole factor. Pay close attention to the bond's credit rating. It should ideally be AA or higher.
Markets this week would be guided by the ongoing quarterly earnings, macroeconomic data announcement and global trends, analysts said. The government will release industrial production data for June and inflation data for July this week. The RBI has revised its retail inflation forecast to 5.7 per cent, up from the earlier 5.1 per cent due to price pressure on account of supply constraints and high crude oil prices.
'If you see the composition of items which are causing this spike in prices, most of them have little to do with the kharif harvest, except for pulses and vegetables to some extent.' 'I don't know on what basis the government is claiming that food prices will moderate in the weeks to come.'
The state's economic health is in focus as it has consistently breached the fiscal deficit in eight of the last 10 years since Telangana's formation.
The United Nations on Wednesday pared down India's growth forecast by 20 basis points to 5.8 per cent for 2023 calendar year, citing higher interest rates and risks of recession in the developed world weighing on investment and exports. "Economic growth in India is projected to moderate in 2023, with higher interest rates weighing on investment and slower global growth weakening exports," it said in its latest World Economic Situation and Prospects report. The report has projected global trade to contract 0.4 per cent and the world economy to grow at 1.9 per cent in 2023.
The economic growth may have slowed to 3.5 per cent in fourth quarter of 2021-22 from 5.4 per cent in the previous three-month period due to the impact of higher commodity prices on margins, decline in wheat yields and on higher base, Icra Ratings said on Monday. The agency said the hiccups in the recovery of the contact-intensive services attributable to the third wave of Covid-19 in the country may have also affected the economic growth in the quarter. Even the gross value added (GVA) at basic prices (at constant 2011-12 prices) in Q4 FY2022 seems to have eased to 2.7 per cent from 4.7 per cent in Q3 FY2022, it said.
The Budget should use the extra RBI surplus to better effect, suggests A K Bhattacharya.
'The long-term impact of elections is minimal.'
Market players attribute the rally in small and midcaps to flows from retail investors and domestic institutions.
'Pump prices of petrol and diesel have reached historical highs. An unwinding of taxes on petroleum products by both the Centre and the states could ease the cost-push pressures,' the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has said.
'The private sector believes that some enablers in labour-intensive sectors like apparel, toys, tourism, and media retail, can unlock a lot of jobs.'
The scarcity of resources is particularly evident in the case of Rajasthan compared to many other states.
Feeble demand in rural areas of the country has affected sales of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) in September as compared to August, which saw heavy stocking ahead of the festival season, according to the data of Bizom, a retail intelligence platform. Sales in rural India fell 14.3 per cent while urban sales growth stood at 1.1 per cent in September as compared to the previous month. Overall FMCG sales fell by 9.6 per cent in September as compared to August.
India's services sector output growth touched a three-month high in November as business inflows rose markedly amid accommodative demand conditions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 55.1 in October to 56.4 in November, indicating a sharp increase in output that was the quickest in three months even amid higher operating expenses. Survey participants linked the latest expansion to demand strength, successful marketing and a sustained upturn in sales.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its latest World Economic Outlook report, has slashed its forecast for India's FY23 gross domestic product growth to 8.2 per cent from 9 per cent, saying that higher commodity prices will weigh on private consumption and investment. This was one of the steepest cuts for emerging economies compared to the IMF's January WEO forecasts. Saying that global economic prospects have worsened significantly due to commodity price volatility and disruption of supply chains caused by the war in Europe, IMF cut its global growth outlook for calendar year 2022 to 3.6 per cent from 4.4 per cent, and said both Russia and Ukraine could experience large GDP contractions.
The central bank tweaked the retail inflation range to 4.8-4.9 per cent in the first half of 2018-19, and 4.7 per cent in the second half.
Equity indices gave up early gains to close in the red for the third session on the trot on Wednesday, weighed by selling in banking and finance counters amid inflationary pressures and persistent foreign fund outflows. A weak rupee and lacklustre global cues also kept buying sentiment in check, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened on a firm footing but failed to hold on the momentum, finishing 237.44 points or 0.41 per cent lower at 58,338.93. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty dipped 54.65 points or 0.31 per cent to close at 17,475.65.
India's industrial output unexpectedly contracted 4.2 percent year-on-year in October, dragged down by a fall in the manufacturing and the capital goods sector, government data showed on Friday.
At item level, rice, coconut oil, fish fresh, poultry, milk, onion, vegetables, fruits, sugar, cigarette, electricity charges etc. are responsible for increase in the index.
The situation raises concerns about whether the promised freebies will once again push the state into a revenue deficit.
Trading in stock markets this week will be majorly influenced by the upcoming quarterly earnings from IT majors TCS and Infosys, along with global trends, analysts said. Besides, global oil benchmark Brent crude, rupee-dollar trend and trading activity of foreign investors would also dictate the movement, they said. "On the domestic front, all eyes will be on the beginning of corporate performance for the third quarter of the current fiscal year.
Markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi's) measures to curb speculative activity in the Rs 450-trillion-a-day futures and options (F&O) market is not a case of "throwing the baby out with the bathwater," whole-time member (WTM) Ananth Narayan said on Friday. "As a regulator, we are conscious that we must not throw the baby out with the bathwater. "When it comes to frenzied trading in options nearing expiry, however, it is difficult to see any baby in this bathwater," he said while delivering his address at the 21st FICCI Annual Capital Markets Conference.
State Bank of India chairman Dinesh Kumar Khara has pitched for tax relief on interest income, saying it would help banks to garner savings that could be used for funding long-term infra projects. Currently, banks are required to deduct tax when interest income from deposits held in all the bank branches put together is more than Rs 40,000 in a year. With regard to savings accounts, interest earned up to Rs 10,000 is exempt from tax.
As markets complete the first half of the calendar year 2022 (CY22) with a fall of around 9 per cent, the interest-rate hike trajectory by global central banks, paired with the conundrum of inflation and growth, will move the needle for the market, observe experts. Here's a quick rundown on what they'll react to over the next six months.
The dollar's weakness against other currencies overseas and a higher opening in the domestic equity market supported the rupee, forex dealers said.
Despite inflation easing, experts see RBI maintaining status quo on Dec 2
ITC was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rising around 3 per cent, followed by HDFC Bank, PowerGrid, ICICI Bank, IndusInd Bank and NTPC. Nifty surged 176.80 points to a new lifetime closing high of 18,338.55.
How is it that tomatoes recorded a price fall in official statistics when it remained unaffordable for the common person in June?
India's economic growth is now 'extremely fragile' and needs all the support that it can get, as private consumption and capital investment are yet to pick up, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Friday. Varma further said out of the four engines of growth for the economy, exports and government spending supported the Indian economy through the pandemic, but other engines need to pick up the baton now. " I like to think in terms of the four engines of growth for the economy: exports, government spending, capital investment and private consumption. "...while exports cannot be the main driver of growth because of the global slowdown, government spending is necessarily limited by fiscal constraints," he told PTI.
The Reserve Bank of India kept interest rates on hold at 7.50 per cent.
'The move to remove indexation benefits on LTCGs presently available for property, gold, and other unlisted assets may have a negative impact as it directly impacts real estate investors.'
Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent and decided to continue with its accommodative stance despite rising inflation. This is the 11th time in a row that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) headed by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das has maintained the status quo. RBI had last revised its policy repo rate or the short-term lending rate on May 22, 2020 in an off-policy cycle to perk up demand by cutting the interest rate to a historic low.
Equity indices made an emphatic comeback on Friday after falling for seven straight sessions after the RBI hiked interest rates by 50 basis points on expected lines and projected inflation coming under control from January next year. A strong recovery in the rupee added to the momentum, traders said. Overcoming a wobbly start, the 30-share BSE Sensex soared 1,016.96 points or 1.80 per cent to settle at 57,426.92. During the day, it rallied 1,312.67 points or 2.32 per cent to 57,722.63.
Home Minister Rajnath Singh said that the decision could cost the government roughly Rs 15,000 crore.
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